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Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC on the verge of a major ...
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Bitcoin price movements after the second supply halving appear to resemble the price movements after the first supply halving. Is each halving of supply likely to have a predictable effect on price? Thanks
Please see this graph: https://ibb.co/Mpy2FvT After the first halving of the bitcoin supply (generated every ten minutes, halving the amount generated every four years) the price increased by around 80x during the first year, and then stabilised at around 40x the initial price over the remaining three years of that (2nd) "reward era". After the second halving the price increased by around 30x during the first year, and then stabilised at around 15x the initial price over the remaining three years (of the 3rd reward era). Taking the daily price after the first halving, dividing it by the price at the first halving (to find the relative price gain), and finally scaling it by an exponent of 0.75, appears to closely "predict" bitcoin's daily price movements after the second halving (see the orange lines on graph linked above). This reward era behaviour could be explained by:
The supply halving initially causes an inevitable price increase due to any relatively constant demands (unbanked people, international transfers, online purchases, exchange for dApps/games etc).
The continually increasing price gets attention and starts to cause speculation buying towards the end of the first year, so that the price then overshoots its "natural" supply/demand level.
The price eventually falls and stabilises at its new "natural" supply/demand level based on the halved supply.
The exponential magnitude of this effect decreases with each supply halving and the associated higher price each time (so far by a factor of 0.75). The graph (linked at the top) shows a projection of this behaviour over the next four-year reward era, with the price stabilising at around $50k during 2022. Please note: Apologies for any incorrect technical economic language. Also, price "stabilisation" in bitcoin terms is still relatively volatile, I assume due to low liquidity. Any thoughts would be appreciated, thanks :)
At the beginning of 2019, the price of bitcoin was only more than 3,000 US dollars. This year, the price of bitcoin reached a maximum of 13,000 US dollars. By December, the price had fallen by more than 6,000 US dollars.
“Bitcoin’s price appears to be contained within a narrow trading range, waiting for volatility to strike back. The ongoing stagnation phase forced the Bollinger bands to squeeze within BTC’s 4-hour chart, which is indicative of a major price movement about to take place.” An Explosive Bitcoin Price Movement May Not Arrive, Concerning Data Shows. by Tony Spilotro. 4 months ago. in Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency news. Reading Time: 3min read Bitcoin price has now traded sideways for nearly two full months. The price action has crypto traders bored, and volatility reaching record lows. Analysts everywhere are expecting a major move soon, if not any day now. However, data ... The Bitcoin price movement before and after halving has had similarities between the first and second events. Technical indicators suggest ongoing similarities with the third one, as well. If the price follows this same pattern, it will increase prior to halving, decrease afterward, and then begin a new market cycle. Cryptocurrency trader @parabolictrav predicted a future movement for the ... Live bitcoin price (up to the minute) with no ads and mobile-optimized in all currencies including USD, EUR, AUD, etc.! Sign up for our daily bitcoin newsletter, real-time bitcoin charts, & historical price data. Bitcoin Price Analyst: Bitcoin Price Movement Is Slow; Time To Accumulate. Martin Young Jul 31, 2019 04:50 . Share. Tweet. Send. Share. Another day rolls by on crypto markets and the momentum is still elusive. Bitcoin and its brethren have crept up marginally in price but most are still range-bound as the consolidation continues. Analysts are in agreement that this is a good time to ...
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